Despite there only being 11 games as opposed to a full 15, due to the pitching matchups and weather, today is a great day to dive into the MLB home run betting market.
We were able to get one to go yard yesterday thanks to Anthony Santander, so let's hope we can stay hot with our favorite MLB player props today, all of which will be home runs!
Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+250) FanDuel
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers, 8:10 p.m. ET
This is about as good of a situation as we will ever see for Ohtani, keeping in mind the price at +250 is actually a good value, as we often see him priced in the high +100s.
He is going up against Freddy Peralta of the Brewers, and this is a match made in heaven for Ohtani. Peralta is definitely not a pitcher to be feared in general, with the 12th-highest HR/9 in the MLB at 1.36. Peralta also allows the 10th-highest barrel rate at 9.5% and 16th-highest launch angle at 16.7 degrees.
He is also a right-handed pitcher, and Ohtani crushes righties. His ISO rate on the season against RHP is .378, all the way up from .210 against LHP.
Lastly, Peralta throws 4-seam fastballs almost 60% of the time against left-handed hitters, and Ohtani crushes fastballs.
On the year, he has an ISO rate of .331 against 4-seam FBs, and over the past month he has a 26% barrel rate, 65% HardHit rate and .304 ISO rate specifically against 4-seam fastballs from RHP.
Paul Goldschmidt Home Run (+300) FanDuel
St. Louis Cardinals vs.Cincinnati Reds, 6:40 p.m. ET
This Cardinals-Reds game is the best game of the day to target home runs for Cardinals batters due to the pitching matchup and the weather/stadium situation as well. Andrew Abbott is pitching for the Reds, and he is absolutely a pitcher to bet against, especially at Cincinnati's hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
The reason we like fading Abott is that he has the fourth-highest HR/9 in MLB at 1.71, with the second-highest launch angle (21.2 degrees) and the 10th-highest barrel rate (9.7%) of all the pitchers who have thrown at least 110 innings.
Abbott is also much worse when he is facing right-handed hitters like Goldschmidt. 22 of the 24 home runs that Abbott has allowed have come against righties, with a HR/9 of 2.03 specifically against RHH.
While Goldschmidt is having a relatively down year when it comes to his power numbers, he should be able to hit Abbott hard. Abbott throws a 4-seam fastball 53% of the time when he is facing right-handed hitters. Over the past two months, Abbott has allowed 11 home runs to righties, including seven off his 4-seamer.
Despite his down year, Goldschmidt has still been able to hit fastballs hard. His ISO rate against 4-seam fastballs is .247, his best power numbers of any pitch. He also has hit four home runs since July 26, so here's hoping he can stay hot and mash another one tonight.
Jose Ramirez Home Run (+400) FanDuel
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians, 6:40 p.m. ET
Ramirez did just go yard yesterday, but he has been so good all year that we are not scared off of backing him to hit another one two days in a row. He has hit the fifth-most home runs on the season with 31, with the ninth-best ISO rate at .263.
The biggest reason he has been able to hit so many home runs is he consistently puts the ball in the air, with the ninth-highest fly-ball rate at 48.5%.
As for the pitching matchup, he is going up against Shota Imanaga of the Cubs. While Imanaga is a stud, he has really struggled with his fastball over the past two months. He has allowed nine home runs to RHP over the past eight weeks, and eight of those have come off his fastball.
Imanaga also struggles with allowing batters to put the ball in the air, allowing the seventh-highest launch angle of all qualified pitchers, with the fourth-highest fly-ball rate at 49%.
Ramirez, meanwhile, is a switch-hitter who will be batting righty against Imanaga, and Ramirez is significantly better against LHP. His ISO rate on the year against LHP is .363, up from .220 against RHP.
Lastly, Ramirez crushes fastballs. As mentioned earlier, Imanaga has struggled with his fastball recently, and he throws 4-seamers over 50% of the time when facing right-handed hitting. On the season, Ramirez has an ISO rate of .341 against 4-seamers, and has been even better over the past month.
In the last four weeks when facing 4-seam fastballs from left-handed pitchers, Ramirez has a barrel rate of 14% with an ISO rate of .429. Let's hope he can go yard once again tonight.
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